Eddie Alvarez
The tape in one line
the strongest measured read on file — receipts attached
Alvarez absorbed 43 landed strikes across 1 fight — 32 punches, 11 kicks.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
received = the OPPONENT's landed strikes in this bout (single-opponent context); annotator-judged landed only
engine provenance ▸
Signature tendencies
the strongest measured patterns in his verified tape — nothing editorial, receipts on every line
Output by round
pooled pace — read the trend, not single-round precision
Alvarez's pace holds steady: 5.0 strikes a minute in round 1, 4.5 in round 2.
n = 39 strikes across 2 rounds
When he gets hit · bursts
what he does when he gets hit, and how his output clusters — each measured against what his own pace would produce by chance
When strikes come at Alvarez, he fires back within 2 seconds 18% of the time. That's 1.4× what his own pace would produce by chance.
not enough data to break down his responses — 12 of the 25 needed
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)
lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent
engine provenance ▸
33% of Alvarez's output comes in bursts — strikes less than 1 second apart. That's 1.8× what his own pace would produce by chance. Statistically, though, that's within what his pace alone would produce.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
burst = inter-strike interval < 1.0s
lift = observed burst share ÷ a null that keeps this fighter's event COUNT but redistributes onsets uniformly over his active in-round time
engine provenance ▸
Output by round — pooled
Alvarez's pace holds steady: 5.0 strikes a minute in round 1, 4.5 in round 2.
n = 39 strikes across 2 rounds
Punches make up 77% of what Alvarez throws; the other 23% is kicks and everything else.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Alvarez throws 23% of his strikes from the lead side. His kicks come off the lead leg 0% of the time.
not enough data to break down the mix — 9 of the 25 needed
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Alvarez's most-thrown strike is the cross — 31% of everything he throws.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Alvarez's pace holds steady: 5.0 strikes a minute in round 1, 4.5 in round 2.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision
engine provenance ▸
56% of Alvarez's strikes land, as judged by our annotator watching the tape.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
landed/missed is the ANNOTATOR's judgment on the hand log — it is not machine-derivable at current capture and carries no defended/absorbed nuance
engine provenance ▸
Alvarez absorbed 43 landed strikes across 1 fight — 32 punches, 11 kicks.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
received = the OPPONENT's landed strikes in this bout (single-opponent context); annotator-judged landed only
engine provenance ▸
What follows what
each row shows what he throws next after that strike — deeper red means it happens more often; click a row for the film. rows without enough tape stay visible with their reasons — an honest “not enough data” beats a confident guess
Sequences
consecutive strikes with every gap inside the fixed window — ranked by frequency
only 9 2-strike sequences on file — 25 needed
unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this
only 3 3-strike sequences on file — 25 needed
unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this
When he gets hit
how often Eddie Alvarez fires back within 2 seconds of eating a strike. The “vs chance” number compares that to what his own pace would produce at random — so it measures deliberate answering, not just busyness. This is about his offense, not how open he is to being hit.
When strikes come at Alvarez, he fires back within 2 seconds 18% of the time. That's 1.4× what his own pace would produce by chance.
not enough data to break down his responses — 12 of the 25 needed
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)
lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent
engine provenance ▸
⟶ Measured reads
the strongest conditional signals on file — receipts attached, nothing editorial
What lands on him
the openings an opponent actually found — annotator-judged landed strikes absorbed
single-opponent context per bout — a hole an opponent found, not a population rate
pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals. Rows below the gate stay visible with their reasons — an honest "not enough tape" beats a confident guess.
When Alvarez throws, his off hand drops 26 percentage points more often than when he's standing neutral. This cleared the pre-registered significance bar.
Watch the Film Study▾
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
39 hand-logged strikes in this fight — 30 punches, 9 kicks.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Verified verdict profile
Operator verdict-ledger evidence, kept separate from temporal tendencies. Complete reviews may support totals and gated rates; partial reviews remain labeled samples; reviews below the coverage floor expose only their withholding reason.
The three frozen verdict gates
- Per-fight mix shares require n ≥ 25 reviewed real attempts; below it, counts only.
- Complete-fight pooled mix shares and own rates require n ≥ 25 real attempts.
- Defense clean-absorb rates require a complete review and n ≥ 25 opponent real attempts.
- Partial reviews are non-random samples: counts and eligible sample mixes are not fight totals or accuracy.
- Physical side means left/right, not lead/rear stance. Jab/cross for swept strikes is stance-INFERRED from pose: a windowed ankle-vote at the strike instant when decisive (94.3% vs hand-log truth), else the fight-level lead; strikes where both abstain stay "straight" rather than guess.
- A single reviewer produced these verdicts; unresolved attribution/validity verdicts are a floor on missingness.
Coverage & provenance
strikes.csv has CRLF line endings
Not measurable from broadcast
the single-feed footage can’t support these — they are not a locked upgrade, they simply aren’t recoverable. Saying so is the product.
Landed / grazed / missed
outcome carries ~no machine signal at this capture and is unreliable even by eye from a single broadcast feed
Fine punch subtype (jab / cross / hook)
capped by 72% annotator self-agreement and the single-feed capture wall
Clinch & ground interior
the corpus is standup-scoped — a single broadcast feed can't resolve grappling exchanges
Feint intent
intent-without-contact is not recoverable from broadcast video
Known limits
- single-annotator ground truth; measured undercount ~8.8% on the deepest-swept fight — global estimate 11–15%; every count is a floor, not an exaggeration
- tendency numbers are standup-scoped and in-round; clinch/ground exchanges are not measured
- stance (lead/rear) is a per-fight constant from a pose asset; a mid-fight stance switch would mislabel lead/rear symmetrically
- per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25%; product language is trends and conditionals, never single-round precision
Every fight on this fighter's file — the event, the result, and how deep the verified data goes.
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