VERIFIEDfull tape

Brandon Aviles

verified strikes (swept)

fights on file

verified fights

machine fights

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The tape in one line

the strongest measured read on file — receipts attached

when hit

23%of incoming strikes get an answer within 2s

When strikes come at Aviles, he fires back within 2 seconds 23% of the time. That's 2.7× what his own pace would produce by chance.

Confidence interval [14%, 34%] · lift interval [1.1×, 15.0×] · n = 65 opponent strikes · 15 responses

2.7× vs chance · interval [1.1×, 15.0×]

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

not enough data to break down his responses — 15 of the 25 needed

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vs Anthony Romero1:561:565:507:578:13

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)

lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent

no stance asset — response classes are physical left/right

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 65 eventsbootstrap-2000 rate CI; circular-shift null ×2000 for lift (seeded per cell·fight)pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

Signature tendencies

the strongest measured patterns in his verified tape — nothing editorial, receipts on every line

bursts47% of his output comes in bursts — 4.1× what his pace alone would produce.n = 32 strikes

paceHis output climbs round over round: 2.0 → 4.4 strikes per minute.n = 32 strikes

absorbsThe strike that lands on him most: the jab — 9 of the 26 he absorbed.n = 26 landed strikes

Output by round

pooled pace — read the trend, not single-round precision

events per minute by round↑ output rises by round

Aviles throws more as the fight goes on: 2.0 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 4.4 by round 2.

n = 32 strikes across 2 rounds

When he gets hit · bursts

what he does when he gets hit, and how his output clusters — each measured against what his own pace would produce by chance

bursts

47%of his output arrives in bursts

47% of Aviles's output comes in bursts — strikes less than 1 second apart. That's 4.1× what his own pace would produce by chance.

Confidence interval [31%, 66%] · lift interval [1.5×, 7.5×] · n = 32 strikes

4.1× vs chance · interval [1.5×, 7.5×]

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

vs Anthony Romero47% (median gap 7.6s)

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vs Anthony Romero1:591:599:189:189:40

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

burst = inter-strike interval < 1.0s

lift = observed burst share ÷ a null that keeps this fighter's event COUNT but redistributes onsets uniformly over his active in-round time

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

Output by round — pooled

↑ output rises by round

Aviles throws more as the fight goes on: 2.0 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 4.4 by round 2.

n = 32 strikes across 2 rounds

strike mix

78%of his strikes are punches

Punches make up 78% of what Aviles throws; the other 22% is kicks and everything else.

Confidence interval [62%, 91%] · n = 32 strikes

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

punch78% (25)

kick22% (7)

n = 32

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vs Anthony Romero1:501:571:592:032:08

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

side mix

53%of his strikes come from the left side

Aviles throws 53% of his strikes from the left side. His kicks come off the left leg 29% of the time.

Confidence interval [38%, 72%] · n = 32 strikes (7 kicks)

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

not enough data to break down the mix — 7 of the 25 needed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:071:571:593:047:59

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

no stance asset for this fight — sides are physical left/right, not lead/rear

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

strike types

38%of his strikes are the straight

Aviles's most-thrown strike is the straight — 38% of everything he throws.

n = 32 classified strikes

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

straight38% (12)

leg kick16% (5)

jab12% (4)

cross9% (3)

hook9% (3)

overhand6% (2)

head kick3% (1)

uppercut3% (1)

body kick3% (1)

n = 32

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:572:088:479:409:48

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventspre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

output by round

2.0 / 4.4strikes per minute, round by round

Aviles throws more as the fight goes on: 2.0 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 4.4 by round 2.

n = 32 strikes across 2 rounds

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

round 12.0/min (10 strikes)

round 24.4/min (22 strikes)

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:071:501:571:591:59

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 events

landed rate

33%of his strikes land

33% of Aviles's strikes land, as judged by our annotator watching the tape.

Confidence interval [17%, 50%] · n = 30 labeled strikes

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

punchnot enough data (23 of 25)

kicknot enough data (7 of 25)

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vs Anthony Romero3:045:509:099:119:40

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

landed/missed is the ANNOTATOR's judgment on the hand log — it is not machine-derivable at current capture and carries no defended/absorbed nuance

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 30 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

what lands on him

26landed strikes absorbed

Aviles absorbed 26 landed strikes across 1 fight — 26 punches.

n = 26 landed strikes (one opponent per bout)

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

punch26 punches absorbed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:531:562:093:003:01

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

received = the OPPONENT's landed strikes in this bout (single-opponent context); annotator-judged landed only

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 26 events

sweep-verified

Computed from a human sweep (no hand-log). Sides are physical left / right — stance unavailable, not lead / rear; a per-fight stance asset would unlock lead/rear.

What follows what

each row shows what he throws next after that strike — deeper red means it happens more often; click a row for the film. rows without enough tape stay visible with their reasons — an honest “not enough data” beats a confident guess

Sequences

consecutive strikes with every gap inside the fixed window — ranked by frequency

combinations

insufficient data

11 of 25needs 14 more

only 11 2-strike sequences on file — 25 needed

unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this

combinations

insufficient data

4 of 25needs 21 more

only 4 3-strike sequences on file — 25 needed

unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this

When he gets hit

how often Brandon Aviles fires back within 2 seconds of eating a strike. The “vs chance” number compares that to what his own pace would produce at random — so it measures deliberate answering, not just busyness. This is about his offense, not how open he is to being hit.

when he gets hit

23%of incoming strikes get an answer within 2s

When strikes come at Aviles, he fires back within 2 seconds 23% of the time. That's 2.7× what his own pace would produce by chance.

Confidence interval [14%, 34%] · lift interval [1.1×, 15.0×] · n = 65 opponent strikes · 15 responses

2.7× vs chance · interval [1.1×, 15.0×]

single bout — observed vs Anthony Romero only

not enough data to break down his responses — 15 of the 25 needed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:561:565:507:578:13

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)

lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent

no stance asset — response classes are physical left/right

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 65 eventsbootstrap-2000 rate CI; circular-shift null ×2000 for lift (seeded per cell·fight)pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

⟶ Measured reads

the strongest conditional signals on file — receipts attached, nothing editorial

He fires back at 23% of the strikes thrown at him within 2 seconds — 2.7× what his pace would produce by chance.Confidence interval [14%, 34%] · n = 65 opponent strikes

47% of his output comes in bursts — 4.1× what his pace alone would produce.n = 32 strikes

The strike that lands on him most: the jab — 9 of the 26 he absorbed.n = 26 landed strikes

Ask the analyst →

What lands on him

the openings an opponent actually found — annotator-judged landed strikes absorbed

26landed strikes absorbed

jab×9

uppercut×7

hook×7

cross×3

single-opponent context per bout — a hole an opponent found, not a population rate

the gate

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals. Rows below the gate stay visible with their reasons — an honest "not enough tape" beats a confident guess.

limitedDefense telemetry is early: the signal is real and eyeball-confirmed, but capture coverage — not the metric — is the blocker. More verified tape unlocks it.

defensive tell — guard recovery

insufficient data

0 of 25needs 25 more

guard telemetry coverage too thin under the frozen validity rules for this fighter

unlock: a defense-telemetry upgrade is pre-registered — these cells re-grade automatically after the next data pass

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

fight volume

33human-verified strikes (swept)

33 human-verified strikes (swept) in this fight — 26 punches, 7 kicks.

n = 33 strikes

punch26 punch

kick7 kick

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Anthony Romero1:071:501:571:591:59

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

no round/segment scoping available for this fight — raw fight-window counts only

engine provenance ▸

source handlogsweep 33

Verified verdict profile

Operator verdict-ledger evidence, kept separate from temporal tendencies. Complete reviews may support totals and gated rates; partial reviews remain labeled samples; reviews below the coverage floor expose only their withholding reason.

verdict evidence on file

Complete-review pooled totals

39 own real attempts across aviles romero · 85 opponent real attempts. Partial and withheld fights are excluded from these totals and every rate.

Own clean-landed rate: 15/39 (38%) · Opponent clean-landed-on-him rate: 37/85 (44%)

Strike mixes, combinations, and conditionals for these complete-review fights are computed once, by the cell engine, and rendered in the Overview, Striking, and Fight IQ tabs — this panel repeats none of them.

aviles romero

816/816 reviewed (100%) · Complete review

39 own real attempts · 85 opponent real attempts — full analytics render in the main tabs.

5 unresolved attribution/validity verdicts — a floor on missingness.

The three frozen verdict gates

Per-fight mix shares require n ≥ 25 reviewed real attempts; below it, counts only.
Complete-fight pooled mix shares and own rates require n ≥ 25 real attempts.
Defense clean-absorb rates require a complete review and n ≥ 25 opponent real attempts.

Partial reviews are non-random samples: counts and eligible sample mixes are not fight totals or accuracy.
Physical side means left/right, not lead/rear stance. Jab/cross for swept strikes is stance-INFERRED from pose: a windowed ankle-vote at the strike instant when decisive (94.3% vs hand-log truth), else the fight-level lead; strikes where both abstain stay "straight" rather than guess.
A single reviewer produced these verdicts; unresolved attribution/validity verdicts are a floor on missingness.

Coverage & provenance

packpack-v3

vocabv1.1

data through2026-08-10

regression gatePASS

vs Anthony Romero

complete assertion review: 816/816 (100%); temporal stream admitted; assertion review complete: 816/816 (100.0%); 5 unresolved — a floor on missingness

816/816 (100%)verified

Not measurable from broadcast

the single-feed footage can’t support these — they are not a locked upgrade, they simply aren’t recoverable. Saying so is the product.

not recoverable

Landed / grazed / missed

outcome carries ~no machine signal at this capture and is unreliable even by eye from a single broadcast feed

not recoverable

Fine punch subtype (jab / cross / hook)

capped by 72% annotator self-agreement and the single-feed capture wall

not recoverable

Clinch & ground interior

the corpus is standup-scoped — a single broadcast feed can't resolve grappling exchanges

not recoverable

Feint intent

intent-without-contact is not recoverable from broadcast video

Known limits

single-annotator ground truth; measured undercount ~8.8% on the deepest-swept fight — global estimate 11–15%; every count is a floor, not an exaggeration
tendency numbers are standup-scoped and in-round; clinch/ground exchanges are not measured
stance (lead/rear) is a per-fight constant from a pose asset; a mid-fight stance switch would mislabel lead/rear symmetrically
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25%; product language is trends and conditionals, never single-round precision