VERIFIEDfull tape · lead-left

Mason Carzino-Hartshorn

verified strikes (swept)

fights on file

verified fights

machine fights

coverage

tendencies computed from 1 round-scoped fight (vs Safari); 1 clip-logged fight contributes volume & per-fight detail only

The tape in one line

the strongest measured read on file — receipts attached

when hit

50%of incoming strikes get an answer within 2s

When strikes come at Hartshorn, he fires back within 2 seconds 50% of the time. That's 2.0× what his own pace would produce by chance.

Confidence interval [34%, 66%] · lift interval [1.1×, 5.3×] · n = 32 opponent strikes · 16 responses

2.0× vs chance · interval [1.1×, 5.3×]

single bout — observed vs Safari only

not enough data to break down his responses — 16 of the 25 needed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari2:132:142:302:462:46

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)

lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventsbootstrap-2000 rate CI; circular-shift null ×2000 for lift (seeded per cell·fight)pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

Signature tendencies

the strongest measured patterns in his verified tape — nothing editorial, receipts on every line

bursts45% of his output comes in bursts — 1.3× what his pace alone would produce. Statistically, that's within what his pace alone would produce.n = 31 strikes

absorbsThe strike that lands on him most: the cross — 5 of the 12 he absorbed.n = 12 landed strikes

When he gets hit · bursts

what he does when he gets hit, and how his output clusters — each measured against what his own pace would produce by chance

bursts

45%of his output arrives in bursts

45% of Hartshorn's output comes in bursts — strikes less than 1 second apart. That's 1.3× what his own pace would produce by chance. Statistically, though, that's within what his pace alone would produce.

Confidence interval [29%, 65%] · lift interval [0.8×, 3.5×] · n = 31 strikes

1.3× vs chance · interval [0.8×, 3.5×]

single bout — observed vs Safari onlynot distinguishable from pace alone

vs Safari45% (median gap 3.9s)

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari1:592:002:462:462:46

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

burst = inter-strike interval < 1.0s

lift = observed burst share ÷ a null that keeps this fighter's event COUNT but redistributes onsets uniformly over his active in-round time

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 31 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

strike mix

52%of his strikes are punches

Punches make up 52% of what Hartshorn throws; the other 48% is kicks and everything else.

Confidence interval [35%, 68%] · n = 31 strikes

single bout — observed vs Safari only

punch52% (16)

kick16% (5)

other32% (10)

n = 31

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari2:462:482:522:543:09

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 31 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

side mix

48%of his strikes come from the lead side

Hartshorn throws 48% of his strikes from the lead side. His kicks come off the lead leg 0% of the time.

Confidence interval [29%, 68%] · n = 31 strikes (5 kicks)

single bout — observed vs Safari only

not enough data to break down the mix — 5 of the 25 needed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari1:592:142:312:462:46

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

stance derived from a validated pose asset (ankle-vote, 12/12 vs human truth; experiments/pose_stance_validation) — jab/cross and lead/rear ride on it

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 31 eventsbootstrap-2000 seeded per cellpre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

strike types

insufficient data

23 of 25needs 2 more

only 23 classified strikes on file — 25 needed

unlock: more labeled fights unlock this

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

output by round

10.0strikes per minute, round by round

Hartshorn threw 10.0 strikes a minute in round 1 — the only round on file.

n = 31 strikes

single bout — observed vs Safari only

round 110.0/min (31 strikes)

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari1:592:002:142:232:24

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 31 events

what lands on him

12landed strikes absorbed

Hartshorn absorbed 12 landed strikes across 1 fight — 11 punches, 1 kick.

n = 12 landed strikes (one opponent per bout)

single bout — observed vs Safari only

punch11 punches absorbed

kick1 kicks absorbed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari2:142:463:033:093:39

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

received = the OPPONENT's landed strikes in this bout (single-opponent context); annotator-judged landed only

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 12 events

sweep-verified

Computed from a human sweep (no hand-log). Sides are physical left / right — stance unavailable, not lead / rear; a per-fight stance asset would unlock lead/rear.

What follows what

each row shows what he throws next after that strike — deeper red means it happens more often; click a row for the film. rows without enough tape stay visible with their reasons — an honest “not enough data” beats a confident guess

Sequences

consecutive strikes with every gap inside the fixed window — ranked by frequency

combinations

insufficient data

7 of 25needs 18 more

only 7 2-strike sequences on file — 25 needed

unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this

combinations

insufficient data

2 of 25needs 23 more

only 2 3-strike sequences on file — 25 needed

unlock: pooling more labeled fights unlocks this

When he gets hit

how often Mason Carzino-Hartshorn fires back within 2 seconds of eating a strike. The “vs chance” number compares that to what his own pace would produce at random — so it measures deliberate answering, not just busyness. This is about his offense, not how open he is to being hit.

when he gets hit

50%of incoming strikes get an answer within 2s

When strikes come at Hartshorn, he fires back within 2 seconds 50% of the time. That's 2.0× what his own pace would produce by chance.

Confidence interval [34%, 66%] · lift interval [1.1×, 5.3×] · n = 32 opponent strikes · 16 responses

2.0× vs chance · interval [1.1×, 5.3×]

single bout — observed vs Safari only

not enough data to break down his responses — 16 of the 25 needed

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari2:132:142:302:462:46

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)

lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent

engine provenance ▸

source handlog · 32 eventsbootstrap-2000 rate CI; circular-shift null ×2000 for lift (seeded per cell·fight)pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

⟶ Measured reads

the strongest conditional signals on file — receipts attached, nothing editorial

He fires back at 50% of the strikes thrown at him within 2 seconds — 2.0× what his pace would produce by chance.Confidence interval [34%, 66%] · n = 32 opponent strikes

45% of his output comes in bursts — 1.3× what his pace alone would produce. Statistically, that's within what his pace alone would produce.n = 31 strikes

The strike that lands on him most: the cross — 5 of the 12 he absorbed.n = 12 landed strikes

Ask the analyst →

What lands on him

the openings an opponent actually found — annotator-judged landed strikes absorbed

12landed strikes absorbed

cross×5

overhand×4

leg kick×1

jab×1

hook×1

single-opponent context per bout — a hole an opponent found, not a population rate

the gate

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals. Rows below the gate stay visible with their reasons — an honest "not enough tape" beats a confident guess.

limitedDefense telemetry is early: the signal is real and eyeball-confirmed, but capture coverage — not the metric — is the blocker. More verified tape unlocks it.

defensive tell — guard recovery

insufficient data

0 of 25needs 25 more

guard telemetry coverage too thin under the frozen validity rules for this fighter

unlock: a defense-telemetry upgrade is pre-registered — these cells re-grade automatically after the next data pass

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

fight volume

49human-verified strikes (swept)

49 human-verified strikes (swept) in this fight — 29 punches, 8 unknowns, 6 knees, 5 kicks, 1 elbow.

n = 49 strikes

punch29 punch

kick5 kick

other×15

Watch the Film Study▾

vs Safari1:592:002:142:232:24

greyed: no playable video registered

standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)

no round/segment scoping available for this fight — raw fight-window counts only

engine provenance ▸

source handlogsweep 49

fight volume

insufficient data

0 of 25needs 25 more

no swept events

pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals

Verified verdict profile

Operator verdict-ledger evidence, kept separate from temporal tendencies. Complete reviews may support totals and gated rates; partial reviews remain labeled samples; reviews below the coverage floor expose only their withholding reason.

verdict evidence on file

Complete-review pooled totals

60 own real attempts across hartshorn safari · 46 opponent real attempts. Partial and withheld fights are excluded from these totals and every rate.

Own clean-landed rate: 32/60 (53%) · Opponent clean-landed-on-him rate: 22/46 (48%)

Strike mixes, combinations, and conditionals for these complete-review fights are computed once, by the cell engine, and rendered in the Overview, Striking, and Fight IQ tabs — this panel repeats none of them.

hartshorn safari

888/888 reviewed (100%) · Complete review

60 own real attempts · 46 opponent real attempts — full analytics render in the main tabs.

18 unresolved attribution/validity verdicts — a floor on missingness.

santos hartshorn

196/5696 reviewed (3%) · Sweep in progress

Metrics are withheld: fewer than 20% of candidates have been reviewed, and the non-random review order cannot support a representative sample.

0 unresolved attribution/validity verdicts — a floor on missingness.

The three frozen verdict gates

Per-fight mix shares require n ≥ 25 reviewed real attempts; below it, counts only.
Complete-fight pooled mix shares and own rates require n ≥ 25 real attempts.
Defense clean-absorb rates require a complete review and n ≥ 25 opponent real attempts.

Partial reviews are non-random samples: counts and eligible sample mixes are not fight totals or accuracy.
Physical side means left/right, not lead/rear stance. Jab/cross for swept strikes is stance-INFERRED from pose: a windowed ankle-vote at the strike instant when decisive (94.3% vs hand-log truth), else the fight-level lead; strikes where both abstain stay "straight" rather than guess.
A single reviewer produced these verdicts; unresolved attribution/validity verdicts are a floor on missingness.

Coverage & provenance

packpack-v3

vocabv1.1

data through2026-08-10

regression gatePASS

vs Safari

complete assertion review: 888/888 (100%); temporal stream admitted; assertion review complete: 888/888 (100.0%); 18 unresolved — a floor on missingness

888/888 (100%)verified

vs De Los Santos

assertion review below 20%: 196/5696 (3.4%); metrics withheld and no temporal stream admitted; assertion review withheld: 196/5696 (3.4%); 0 unresolved — a floor on missingness; Metrics are withheld: fewer than 20% of candidates have been reviewed, and the non-random review order cannot support a representative sample.

196/5696 (3%)verified

Not measurable from broadcast

the single-feed footage can’t support these — they are not a locked upgrade, they simply aren’t recoverable. Saying so is the product.

not recoverable

Landed / grazed / missed

outcome carries ~no machine signal at this capture and is unreliable even by eye from a single broadcast feed

not recoverable

Fine punch subtype (jab / cross / hook)

capped by 72% annotator self-agreement and the single-feed capture wall

not recoverable

Clinch & ground interior

the corpus is standup-scoped — a single broadcast feed can't resolve grappling exchanges

not recoverable

Feint intent

intent-without-contact is not recoverable from broadcast video

Known limits

single-annotator ground truth; measured undercount ~8.8% on the deepest-swept fight — global estimate 11–15%; every count is a floor, not an exaggeration
tendency numbers are standup-scoped and in-round; clinch/ground exchanges are not measured
stance (lead/rear) is a per-fight constant from a pose asset; a mid-fight stance switch would mislabel lead/rear symmetrically
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25%; product language is trends and conditionals, never single-round precision