Ilia Topuria
The tape in one line
the strongest measured read on file — receipts attached
44% of Topuria's output comes in bursts — strikes less than 1 second apart. That's 1.4× what his own pace would produce by chance.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
burst = inter-strike interval < 1.0s
lift = observed burst share ÷ a null that keeps this fighter's event COUNT but redistributes onsets uniformly over his active in-round time
engine provenance ▸
Signature tendencies
the strongest measured patterns in his verified tape — nothing editorial, receipts on every line
What follows what — the top read
his most predictable pattern — the full table lives on the Fight IQ tab
After a rear punch, his next strike is a lead punch 91% of the time.
Confidence interval [83%, 100%] · n = 35 follow-ups within 2s
Output by round
pooled pace — read the trend, not single-round precision
Topuria throws more as the fight goes on: 8.0 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 19.6 by round 3.
n = 219 strikes across 3 rounds
When he gets hit · bursts
what he does when he gets hit, and how his output clusters — each measured against what his own pace would produce by chance
When strikes come at Topuria, he fires back within 2 seconds 28% of the time. That's 1.1× what his own pace would produce by chance. He usually answers with a lead punch (49% of his responses).
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)
lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent
engine provenance ▸
Output by round — pooled
↑ output rises by roundTopuria throws more as the fight goes on: 8.0 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 19.6 by round 3.
n = 219 strikes across 3 rounds
Punches make up 89% of what Topuria throws; the other 11% is kicks and everything else.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Topuria throws 50% of his strikes from the lead side. His kicks come off the lead leg 0% of the time.
not enough data to break down the mix — 24 of the 25 needed
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Topuria's most-thrown strike is the jab — 28% of everything he throws.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Topuria throws more as the fight goes on: 9.2 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 19.6 by round 3.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision
engine provenance ▸
Topuria threw 8.0 strikes a minute in round 1 — the only round on file.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision
engine provenance ▸
Topuria throws more as the fight goes on: 6.8 strikes a minute in round 1, up to 8.7 by round 2.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25% — read trends, not single-round precision
engine provenance ▸
58% of Topuria's strikes land, as judged by our annotator watching the tape.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
landed/missed is the ANNOTATOR's judgment on the hand log — it is not machine-derivable at current capture and carries no defended/absorbed nuance
engine provenance ▸
Topuria absorbed 160 landed strikes across 3 fights — 91 punches, 69 kicks.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
received = the OPPONENT's landed strikes in this bout (single-opponent context); annotator-judged landed only
engine provenance ▸
What follows what
each row shows what he throws next after that strike — deeper red means it happens more often; click a row for the film. rows without enough tape stay visible with their reasons — an honest “not enough data” beats a confident guess
lead punch33%[20%,48%]65%[50%,78%]0%[0%,0%]2%[0%,7%]46
After a lead punch, Topuria's next strike is a rear punch — 65% of the time.
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
rear punch91%[83%,100%]9%[0%,17%]0%[0%,0%]0%[0%,0%]35
After a rear punch, Topuria's next strike is a lead punch — 91% of the time.
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
jab36%[16%,56%]60%[40%,80%]0%[0%,0%]4%[0%,12%]25
After a jab, Topuria's next strike is a rear punch — 60% of the time.
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
cross89%[79%,100%]11%[0%,21%]0%[0%,0%]0%[0%,0%]28
After a cross, Topuria's next strike is a lead punch — 89% of the time.
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
Sequences
consecutive strikes with every gap inside the fixed window — ranked by frequency
Topuria's go-to 2-strike combination is cross → hook — he threw it 23 times, 27% of his 2-strike sequences.
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Topuria's go-to 3-strike combination is hook → cross → hook — he threw it 5 times, 12% of his 3-strike sequences.
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When he gets hit
how often Ilia Topuria fires back within 2 seconds of eating a strike. The “vs chance” number compares that to what his own pace would produce at random — so it measures deliberate answering, not just busyness. This is about his offense, not how open he is to being hit.
When strikes come at Topuria, he fires back within 2 seconds 28% of the time. That's 1.1× what his own pace would produce by chance. He usually answers with a lead punch (49% of his responses).
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
response = this fighter's next strike within 2.0s of the opponent's strike (two-sided stream, single-opponent context)
lift = observed rate ÷ a circular-shift null that keeps this fighter's own pace and burst structure but scrambles timing vs the opponent
engine provenance ▸
⟶ Measured reads
the strongest conditional signals on file — receipts attached, nothing editorial
What lands on him
the openings an opponent actually found — annotator-judged landed strikes absorbed
single-opponent context per bout — a hole an opponent found, not a population rate
pre-registered gate: n ≥ 25 for shares/conditionals. Rows below the gate stay visible with their reasons — an honest "not enough tape" beats a confident guess.
After a punch, Topuria's guard takes 0.04 seconds longer to come back up than at a neutral moment. The interval includes zero, so read it as a lean, not a fact.
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standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
After a punch, Topuria's guard takes 0.13 seconds longer to come back up than at a neutral moment. The interval includes zero, so read it as a lean, not a fact.
Watch the Film Study▾
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
After a rear_power, Topuria's guard takes 0.26 seconds less to come back up than at a neutral moment. This cleared the pre-registered significance bar.
Watch the Film Study▾
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
When Topuria throws, his off hand drops 11 percentage points less often than when he's standing neutral. This cleared the pre-registered significance bar.
Watch the Film Study▾
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
When Topuria throws, his off hand drops 44 percentage points more often than when he's standing neutral. This cleared the pre-registered significance bar.
Watch the Film Study▾
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
per-bout claims only — cross-fight stability of guard tendencies is UNPROVEN (off-hand effect flips sign across Topuria's two bouts)
graded under the v2 reference (nose–shoulder), the fix the frozen run pre-registered — owner-authorized 2026-08-14; the pre-registered primary (chin y-ref) admits fewer fighters and rides along unchanged; 61% of measurement windows are readable under the v2 validity screen
TTG is right-censored at 2.0s (longer lapses hidden); TTG-vs-neutral is partly mechanical — an extended hand must travel back
no landed/absorbed conditioning tested; knees untested; clinch/ground excluded by design
engine provenance ▸
Human review found 24 additional strikes the hand log missed — 23 punches, 1 kick. They're shown here for honesty, never mixed into the headline stats.
122 of 134 logged strikes were independently re-confirmed during human review (91%)
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
beyond-log strikes: adjudication-confirmed candidates with no hand-log match — headline stats EXCLUDE them by design (they corroborate the undercount estimate)
engine provenance ▸
Human review found 26 additional strikes the hand log missed — 26 punches. They're shown here for honesty, never mixed into the headline stats.
0 of 0 logged strikes were independently re-confirmed during human review
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
beyond-log strikes: adjudication-confirmed candidates with no hand-log match — headline stats EXCLUDE them by design (they corroborate the undercount estimate)
engine provenance ▸
134 hand-logged strikes in this fight — 119 punches, 15 kicks.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
no hand-log events
20 hand-logged strikes in this fight — 20 punches.
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tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
66 hand-logged strikes in this fight — 57 punches, 9 kicks.
Watch the Film Study▾
tap a time — replays in-page, slowed · times index the registered upload
standup-scoped, in-round hand-log events (single annotator; ~11–15% estimated strike undercount — every level is a floor)
engine provenance ▸
Verified verdict profile
Operator verdict-ledger evidence, kept separate from temporal tendencies. Complete reviews may support totals and gated rates; partial reviews remain labeled samples; reviews below the coverage floor expose only their withholding reason.
The three frozen verdict gates
- Per-fight mix shares require n ≥ 25 reviewed real attempts; below it, counts only.
- Complete-fight pooled mix shares and own rates require n ≥ 25 real attempts.
- Defense clean-absorb rates require a complete review and n ≥ 25 opponent real attempts.
- Partial reviews are non-random samples: counts and eligible sample mixes are not fight totals or accuracy.
- Physical side means left/right, not lead/rear stance. Jab/cross for swept strikes is stance-INFERRED from pose: a windowed ankle-vote at the strike instant when decisive (94.3% vs hand-log truth), else the fight-level lead; strikes where both abstain stay "straight" rather than guess.
- A single reviewer produced these verdicts; unresolved attribution/validity verdicts are a floor on missingness.
Coverage & provenance
strikes.csv has CRLF line endings
adjudication_only
strikes.csv has CRLF line endings; strikes.csv is pre-landed 6-col vintage (no landed column)
tendency
Not measurable from broadcast
the single-feed footage can’t support these — they are not a locked upgrade, they simply aren’t recoverable. Saying so is the product.
Landed / grazed / missed
outcome carries ~no machine signal at this capture and is unreliable even by eye from a single broadcast feed
Fine punch subtype (jab / cross / hook)
capped by 72% annotator self-agreement and the single-feed capture wall
Clinch & ground interior
the corpus is standup-scoped — a single broadcast feed can't resolve grappling exchanges
Feint intent
intent-without-contact is not recoverable from broadcast video
Known limits
- single-annotator ground truth; measured undercount ~8.8% on the deepest-swept fight — global estimate 11–15%; every count is a floor, not an exaggeration
- tendency numbers are standup-scoped and in-round; clinch/ground exchanges are not measured
- stance (lead/rear) is a per-fight constant from a pose asset; a mid-fight stance switch would mislabel lead/rear symmetrically
- per-round counts sit on a Poisson floor of roughly ±18–25%; product language is trends and conditionals, never single-round precision
Every fight on this fighter's file — the event, the result, and how deep the verified data goes.
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